Global shrimp survey goal 2016
Shrimp production grew steadily in east Asia through 2011, averaging 6 percent annual growth from 2008 to 2011. The GOAL surveys indicate that production declined from 3.45 MMT to 3.25 MMT in 2012 (down 5.8 percent) and 3.21 MMT in 2013 (down 1.1 percent) due to the impact of EMS in China, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia (Fig. 2). Production increased substantially in 2014 to 3.49 MMT (up 8.5 percent) mostly due to the larger harvests reported in China, Vietnam and India.
Despite this recovery, survey respondents estimated that production decreased again in 2015 due to smaller harvests in China, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. Although Thailand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 14.5 percent between 2015 and 2018 – with production reaching 370,000 MT in 2018 – this recovery would account nevertheless for only 60 percent of the production level reached in 2012, prior to the onset of EMS. By 2014, Indonesia, Vietnam and India had surpassed Thailand as the second largest producer in Asia. This trend is expected to continue through 2018 as the former countries grow at an average annual rate between 4 and 7 percent.
An uneven recovery from EMS is expected in China: While the nadir was apparently reached in 2013 at 1.27 MMT, output increased to 1.48 MMT as farming areas in the north of the country expanded production. However, output declined again (down to 1.40 MMT) in 2015 due to disease and extreme weather events. A relatively weak recovery is expected through 2018, with an average annual growth rate barely exceeding 1 percent during 2015-2018.
In conclusion, the Asian industry seems to be on the path of recovery following the substantial production declines in 2012 and 2013 caused by EMS. Production may reach 3.65 MMT by 2018, driven primarily by growth in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and India. China will remain the largest producer but its contribution to regional growth will be more modest. Of course, these estimates rely on the assumption that no major disease will break out in the region in the next few years.