High shrimp prices to hold in medium-term, but decline in 2015, says Rabobank
Shrimp prices appear to be on the verge of decline in 2015 after a year of highs, Rabobank says in its latest report “A New Dawn for the Prawn”.
The bank notes that global demand for shrimp is growing; and Ecuador, India and Indonesia will not be able to single-handedly shoulder the burden of meeting this increasing demand, but recovery in early mortality syndrome (EMS)-hit areas provides hope for the longer term.
If we assume that a gradual recovery of EMS in China and Thailand could potentially take a few years, a continuation of the high and volatile price environment can be expected to persist at least in the medium term,” Rabobank said. “Ecuador, India and Indonesia alone cannot satisfy the current growth of global demand despite their impressive supply expansion.”
Yet Rabobank says that in 2015 — if the expected gradual recovery of EMS continues — then supply will grow steadily, in which case prices would decline gradually.